War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties banned, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".