Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures

The mean count of per-day killings per month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent administrative figures. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide numbers could fail to signal better national stability.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in last November compared with roughly 87 when the President began the presidential office in September of last year. This information was delivered by the chief of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded during these months is very significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that last month the least amount of murders were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Fierce organized crime infighting, alongside the government’s heavily military efforts to confront the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure more than 4x greater than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “There is a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative work.
• Enhanced collaboration between various agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety analysts cautioned that using homicide numbers to paint a picture of improved security was flawed. This is especially true considering the increase in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be positive information if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide data and say: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer valid for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the inclination to properly recognize and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was additionally an issue because it could obscure days when there were particularly spiking numbers of killings.

“Using the daily average renders spikes of violence less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and this past November for major crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet despite these actions, Mexico remains beset by extreme violence, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the nation to show their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to build a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” Vargas said.